Labour opens up six-point poll lead as conference season closes
Survation puts Labour on 29 per cent, its highest share in nearly two years, while a second pollster has the party five points clear.
Labour has opened up a six-point lead over Reform UK in the latest Westminster voting intention poll, capping a Labour conference in Liverpool that the party will regard as its most successful in years. The Survation poll, with fieldwork conducted on Tuesday, put Labour on 29 per cent, up two points, with Reform on 23 per cent, down one, and the Conservatives on 19 per cent, down two.
It is Labour's highest share with Survation in nearly two years, the last time being December 2024, five months after Sir Keir Starmer's general election landslide. The Liberal Democrats and Greens were level on 9 per cent each. A separate poll by the More in Common think tank, conducted between 25 and 29 September among 2,041 people, also put Labour first, on 27 per cent, with the Conservatives on 22 per cent and Reform on 21 per cent.
More in Common's Luke Tryl said Reform's 21 per cent was the party's lowest figure in that polling series for more than 18 months. Both pollsters' fieldwork overlapped Labour's conference, and in Survation's case fell on the day Andy Burnham delivered his keynote speech. The pollsters cautioned that the results are a snapshot, not a forecast, and do not show whether the speech itself moved voters.
Labour's highest share with Survation in nearly two years.Daily Herald
Survation also published instant reaction polling on the Prime Minister's speech. It found that 55 per cent of the public had seen or heard something about the speech in the hours afterwards, and that a majority of them had a positive impression, giving a net positive score of 32 points. Among those who had seen or heard something, half named the changes to the pensions triple lock as the most significant announcement, with about one in five naming the new national care service.
The findings continue a turnaround in Labour's fortunes since Burnham replaced Starmer as leader in July. Survation noted the party is now ten points above its lowest share, recorded in February. Burnham moved last week to dampen speculation about an early election, insisting the country will not go to the polls until 2029.
Labour Home, reporting the two polls, offered a note of caution: the surveys agree Labour is in first place but differ on the order of the next two parties, a reminder that individual polls are estimates, not election results, and that their figures should not be combined into a single ranking.
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